Binet presents predictive Share of Search metric
Effectiveness guru Les Binet presented a new Share of Search metric to help track the health and potential wealth of brands and advertising to an audience of thousands at the IPA-led EffWorks Global 2020 Conference today (14 October).
According to Binet, who has been experimenting with the Share of Search metric over the past six years, it is fast, cheap and predictive, and can measure both short and long term ad effects. Broken down, Binet refers to share of searches as the share of organic Google search queries (not share of paid search advertising) and the metric equates to total searches for a specific brand, divided by the total searches for all brands in that category. This data can be taken from Google Trends, is free, generally goes back to 2004 and can offer weekly frequency.
To test the Share of Search theorem, Binet explored three categories: automotive, energy (gas and electricity) and mobile phone handsets, to discover
10 significant findings:
Share of Search correlates with market share in all three categories.
Share of Search is a leading indicator / predictor of Share of Market – when Share of Search goes up, Share of Market tends to go up and when Share of Search goes down, Share of Market falls. The gap between them – the Extra Share of Search (ESOS) – is a particularly solid indicator of market share movements.
The lead time for Share of Search on Share of Market can be substantial, up to a year for cars.
This long-term prediction can also act as an early warning system for brands, in terms of their market share (e.g. Volkswagen).
Share of Search is not a perfect predictor though, as conversion is, of course, affected by other factors, particularly price. Equally, not all search activity is positive.
Share of Voice (advertising) has two effects on Share of Search: a big short-term effect that dies away quickly, plus a smaller, longer-term effect that decays away slowly.
The long-term effects, however, accumulate over time.
Sustained advertising drives the growth of Share of Search with 60% of searches coming from the long-term effects and 40% from short-term effects.
Each brand has an equilibrium level: if the Share of Voice falls below the equilibrium level, the Share of Search tends to fall over the next two years; if the Share of Voice is above equilibrium, the Share of Search tends to rise over the next two years.
Share of Search could also be a new measure for brand strength/health of their brand by measuring the base level of Share of Search without advertising
Read or watch the full presentation by Les Binet: https://ipa.co.uk/news/binet-presents-fast-cheap-predictive-share-of-search-metric/
